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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 28.4% | -16.2 |
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 56.2% | +3.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Water Zander | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Wind Nico | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concealed Marksman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charge the Soul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Steady Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |